502 FXUS66 KOTX 071230 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 430 AM PST Sat Nov 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periodic chances for light rain and mountain snow Saturday into early next week. - Gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph out of the west Saturday night into Sunday. && .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather conditions continue into the weekend and early next week with a series of systems bringing periods of rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds. && .DISCUSSION... Saturday through Thursday: A parade of wet storm systems with ties to subtropical moisture will take aim at the Pac NW through the period. The Olympics, West Slopes of the North Cascades, and southwest British Columbia are favored to receive a brunt of the moderate to heavy precipitation as each axis of moisture comes in with a southwest to northeast orientation. Periods of light to moderate precipitation will at times extend into the East Slopes of the Cascades and North Idaho with generally light activity over Central and Eastern WA. Between each round of precipitation, there will be a short-lived breaks allowing for some drying. Ensembles are in good agreement with the general, active weather pattern across the Eastern Pacific and into the Northwest with subtle differences coming with exactly how much of the moderate to heavy rain will extend over the immediate crest and potentially fall over the Cascade burn scars (Little Giant, Sisi, Pioneer) creating some concern for debris flows. The pattern is not particularly conducive for heavy rain directly over these scars but each slug of moisture will be capable of 0.20-0.50" every 24 hours. These soils are becoming saturated following the 0.25-0.50 inches of rain that fell over these scars over the last 12-15 hours. The main uncertainty comes with the intensity of these rains. Saturday will bring the first short-lived break in the wet weather. Satellite reveals a deeper trough digging into the Eastern Pacific which will allow heights to rise over the Inland NW and bend the next plume of subtropical moisture south to north off the WA Coast. Breezy south to southeasterly winds will develop over the Inland NW with the air mass warming 3 to 6 Celsius at 850 mb. Gusty winds are expected over the Blue Mountains, Palouse, Camas Prairie, and L-C Valley where there is a 50-70% chance for gusts 20-25 mph. The approaching cold front will move into the Cascades overnight and across the Inland NW Sunday morning. In addition to bands of moderate rain, gusty westerly winds will be likely. I expect a period of winds to surface with the cold front passage overnight and remain gusty into Sunday morning and early afternoon as the boundary layer becomes well mixed. There is 60-70% chance for wind gusts >30 mph and 10-30% chance for wind gusts >40 mph. Given the strong cold air advection (850mb temperatures cooling 6-7 Celsius), gusts of at least 30 mph seem like a sure bet but it may be harder to mix down the 40kt winds overnight from 2000 feet above ground layer. I do have some concern that the models may be undergoing the mixing overnight for some of the higher benches on the Waterville Plateau and across the upper rim of the Columbia Basin and Palouse. Forecast wind gusts have been increased given these concerns. These stronger winds to subside closer to 30kts following the cold front passage leading to gusts closer to 30 mph through Sunday morning. Travelers heading over the Cascade passes will mainly encounter rain for Saturday and Saturday evening. Following the cold front passage Saturday night, rain showers will change to snow showers for Stevens and Washington Pass. While Stevens Pass is not expected to receive impactful snow, will need to closely monitor where the Puget Sound Convergence Zone sets up which could lead to local accumulations of 1-2 inches. NBM is forecasting 3-4 inches for Washington Pass. Otherwise, precipitation with the front Saturday night into Sunday morning will deliver another 0.25-0.50" across the upper river valleys of the East Slopes and aforementioned burn scars and upwards of 0.70-1.00" to the immediate crest. Rainfall amounts in Idaho and eastern WA will vary from a few hundreths to quarter of an inch along the Montana border with little to no rainfall in the Cascade rain shadow. The highest intensity rain for the Cascades will come right along the cold front overnight. Monday-Tuesday: The pattern is a bit messy with weaker waves coming through the region but with an usually moist air mass remaining overhead. This will continue to bring on and off preciptiation, generally light and lower impact on Monday but rain intensities will increase on Tuesday as more developed warm front develops. This will bring the next chance for another 0.10 to 0.50 to the Cascades and tenth to quarter of an inch over Eastern WA and North Idaho. Wednesday-Saturday: There is moderate confidence for another ridge to blossom over the region Wednesday into Friday delivering the next period of dry conditions. Given several days if on and off rain, its almost a guarantee there will be areas of fog and low stratus. Uncertainty increases late Friday into Saturday whether the next front pushes inland or remains off the coast with high pressure in control. By this time, confidence is lower that the front will have ties to the richer moisture and is expected to weaken with lighter rainfall amounts. /sb && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: The weak frontal boundary that brought light rain to eastern WA and north ID has stalled over the ID panhandle. While radar returns continue to weaken, a mid-level cloud layer (12000 ft) remains stretched across far southeast WA and the ID panhandle including KLWS. To the north of these clouds, clear skies and ground moisture is resulting in pockets of shallow developing early this morning. In many locations, winds are still providing enough mixing to keep the fog at bay but in the last hour both KMWH and KEAT have seen reductions in visibility due to fog. There is a low probability (80%) with the timing of the frontal boundary early Sunday morning. /AB ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 59 44 54 36 50 38 / 0 10 40 0 10 50 Coeur d`Alene 59 43 52 35 50 38 / 0 10 80 0 10 60 Pullman 59 42 52 36 51 38 / 0 0 70 0 10 40 Lewiston 62 44 56 41 53 42 / 0 0 20 10 10 30 Colville 53 34 54 27 48 30 / 0 60 10 0 0 50 Sandpoint 54 38 50 31 47 35 / 0 20 70 0 10 60 Kellogg 60 42 51 35 51 39 / 0 0 100 0 10 70 Moses Lake 59 37 58 32 53 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 30 Wenatchee 53 43 54 36 49 38 / 0 50 10 0 0 50 Omak 52 39 54 30 49 34 / 0 30 0 0 0 40 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$
NWS OTX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Discussion Script by Ken True at Saratoga Weather - WFO Script by SE Lincoln Weather